Testing, and more testing...

The 2004 season has officially begun, now that the Daytona tire
tests are run and the first official IRTA test has begun. Some overanalysis:

End of an era: Honda takes to the track with an inline-four superbike for
the first time in more than 20 years, since the CB750/900F in 1982. After 8
AMA SB championships and 5 WSB championships, the V-engine experiment is
over. And that CBR looks pretty damned good, ripping off a 47.65 under B-Boz
and a 192mph trap speed. Smokin'.

The other new 1000s: The SS machines were amazingly fast as well, with both
Hacking and DiSalvo posting 49.5s on the R1 and Tom Hayden a 50.6 on the
Kawi. Looks like Yamaha could break into the top 10 in SB with their SS
machine. If the tires don't explode first...

And about those tires: Unfortunately that's the story of the test. The
situation has reached a critical point, and I don't know what they can do
before March. Mladin says he won't ride, which may be out of the heat of the
moment and for effect (he would probably benefit by a Daytona cancellation,
championship-wise), but what if he's serious? What if no one rides? This
isn't Sears Point or Loudon, it's the opener and the biggest race of the
year, dictated as such by tradition. And there's no obvious short-term
solution, although in the longer run the answer is changing the course.
Although the track seems to think they aren't the problem. Could it be that
it's just Dunlop? Or is this just the straw that broke the camel's back for
the riders regarding racing at the speedway? Will Daytona end up as the
first fatality of the literbike era in racing? Assuming one doesn't consider
that to be Kato. Or WSB.

About the race: If they race on, what kind of race is Daytona? Under the new
rules the Suzukis may not be competitive here, just as they weren't this
year. So do they just ride around and gather the points they can, as
E-Boz/Ducati/Michelin may do, mindful of the Daytona Ducati jinx, and then
move on to the real racing? The tires may be so hard that there isn't any
real racing, just a survival test. The next round at Fontana offers twice
the points and only 2/3rds the distance, and the playing field will be very
different. Is Daytona mostly irrelevant now, just a rather bizarre and
dangerous display?

About the 600s: The Kawis were fast, and the R6s were faster. Yates
certainly couldn't get the new Suzuki SS to that pace, something like 3
seconds slower than Hacking, down on power. I know it's a brand new bike,
but a sign of problems? If so, any chance they'll bail for FX? Seems like it
would make sense, with Spies owning the FX number one plate and Yates
probably preferring a miniSB to a SS machine. And Honda doesn't look
unbeatable there, as the best time I saw posted was Duhamel's 53.5, over a
second off Hacking. Why chase Yamaha if they're that good? If Suzuki and
Kawasaki move to FX, doesn't that become the class that matters? Or are they
afraid of Honda more than Yamaha? Earlier this year after the class changes
were announced Jefferson Burkes, Hacking's chief mechanic, told me he
thought it would be tough to make 600s faster than current SS machines, they
were that good, and from what I can see of Honda's FX machine so far, he
looks to be right. The FX machines will get there, but where will that be? I
assume a Daytona pole time in 600SS will be 1:52, in 1000SS 1:49, in SB
(assuming no Qs) 1:47, maybe into the 46s. Can an FX Honda go below 1:51?
1:50?? Their new SS machine was on pole this year with Miguel's 52.8, and
they ought to be able to take at least a second and a half off that.

Meanwhile at Valencia: Not too much coming out of the first joint test so
far, but there were a few things: Biaggi taking over at the front with Rossi
gone, which is not a surprise; Tamada putting up some very good times on the
Bridgestones, which might bode well for Kawasaki and Suzuki as well; a first
look at Shakey, Kurtis, Neil, Ruben, and also Colin on the Honda. The pace
still seems to be the Hondas and the Marlboro Ducatis, with a 1.5 second gap
between Edwards and Xaus on Thursday, also not a surprise. We'll have to
wait until next year to get a read on the Yamahas, though. Speaking of them,
did you see the official provisional MGP entry list? It showed Rossi and
Checa on the Gauloises bikes and Barros and Melandri in Fortuna colors. Does
that make sense, Checa not with Fortuna? It also lists Roberts with Proton,
but today there was an article on the website that says he hasn't signed
yet. And still nothing yet on that 2nd Repsol spot...

"Mark N" wrote in message


 > And about those tires: Unfortunately that's the story of the test. The
 > situation has reached a critical point, and I don't know what they can do
 > before March. Mladin says he won't ride, which may be out of the heat of
the
 > moment and for effect (he would probably benefit by a Daytona
cancellation,
 > championship-wise), but what if he's serious? What if no one rides? This
 > isn't Sears Point or Loudon, it's the opener and the biggest race of the
 > year, dictated as such by tradition. And there's no obvious short-term
 > solution, although in the longer run the answer is changing the course.
 > Although the track seems to think they aren't the problem. Could it be
that
 > it's just Dunlop? Or is this just the straw that broke the camel's back
for
 > the riders regarding racing at the speedway? Will Daytona end up as the
 > first fatality of the literbike era in racing? Assuming one doesn't
consider
 > that to be Kato. Or WSB.

I understand the focus of Daytona, but this was the fourth tire failure this
year. Another one earlier at Daytona, and then much earlier we had two at
the same track (I forget which -- Mladin and Deatherage? I think?) Mladin
survived uninjured.

And Mladin had tire issues all year long last year, so while the Daytona
track is an easy target, it's not the only responsible party, IMHO.

Regards,

Will Hartung
(willh@msoft.com)